Written by: February 18, 2024
Think differently and achieve outlier results with the mental model of inversion.
Principle-First
During World War II, military analysts were trying to figure out how to armor their planes better.
They noticed many returning aircraft had bullet holes in the wings, tail, and fuselage. The immediate assumption was to reinforce these areas.
Sounds logical, right?
But a U.S.-based statistician named Abraham Wald made an observation: These were the planes that survived.
The planes that didn’t return might have been hit in other vital areas, like the engine. By focusing only on the survivors, they were missing crucial information…
Wald’s insight was to reinforce the areas with NO bullet holes on the returning planes. Why? He realized the planes hit in those parts did not return.
In this example, Wald applied a powerful mental model—inversion—to save countless lives.
Sidenote: The late investor Charlie Munger popularized inversion, often quoting German mathematician Carl Jacobi’s advice: “Invert, always invert.”
Today, I’ll show you how you, too, can apply inversion to achieve your goals.
SUPERHUMAN SCORING
In every edition of System Sunday, I assess the featured system across three superhuman dimensions: impact, setup, and maintenance.
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Impact (9.5/10)
“Inversion” means to invert or flip something upside down.
How can we apply this to personal growth? We can invert the question “How can I be successful?” to “How might I avoid failure?”
(Much like how Wald asked, “What’s causing the fighter jets to fail?”)
Inversion lets you start with your goals in mind, work backward, and proactively avoid bad habits that prevent you from achieving them.
By considering negative outcomes, you’ll clarify your path to success.
Let me show you how.
Setup (8.0/10)
3 steps to apply the power of inversion:
- Begin by identifying your ultimate goals, whether they‘re related to personal development, career advancement, or something else entirely.
- Instead of charting a direct path to these goals, list the anti-habits—the actions, habits, or choices that could derail your progress. Ask yourself, “What could cause me to fail?” Examples might include scrolling social media in bed, drinking alone, gossiping, etc.
- From Step 2, convert your anti-habits into an ‘I Don’t Do List.’ It’s one thing to write, “No smoking,” but more powerful to write, “I don’t smoke.” Your I Don’t Do List will help you internalize the identity of someone who doesn’t do the thing.
Inversion (like this) prepares you for success by ensuring you’re not inadvertently working against your own best interests.
Maintenance (7.0/10)
Incorporate routine check-ins with yourself to reassess your I Don’t Do List.
This isn’t about being overly critical or focusing solely on the negative; instead, it’s a way to stay proactive about your growth.
Keeping a ‘failure log’ can be an invaluable tool here.
Jot down instances you violated your anti-habits or other unforeseen setbacks. What triggered the event, and what could you do in the future to prevent it?
Say, for example, you have a goal of losing weight and an anti-habit of “I don’t eat fast food.”
Maybe you impulsively broke your anti-habit because you were hungry, and unhealthy food was the only option (I’ve been there!). The next step could be to pack your car, office, or briefcase with healthy snacks.
This practice helps cultivate a growth mindset, where challenges are seen not as dead ends but as stepping stones.
You’ll transform setbacks into setups for success.
BRINGING IT HOME
This quote from The Office’s Dwight Shrute encapsulates the idea of inversion:
“Whenever I’m about to do something, I think, ‘Would an idiot do that?’ And if they would, I do not do that thing.”
It’s a humorous reminder that progress isn’t always some brilliant new tactic.
Progress can be as simple as avoiding mistakes that prevent it.
All systems go,
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P.P.S. The title for today’s email was inspired by a fantastic newsletter called Growth in Reverse. It’s about reverse-engineering the success of top online creators. Worth checking out if you’re in the creator space!
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